Policies currently in force put the world on course for about 2.8°C of warming this century, according to a new United Nations assessment that says governments remain far from the emissions cuts needed to return global temperatures toward the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal.

The UN Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report 2026, released October 21, projects a lower 2.6°C outcome if countries fully deliver their existing national climate pledges and continue comparable efforts. Those are separate scenarios: 2.8°C reflects current policies, while 2.6°C assumes all stated national commitments are carried out.

A steep gap between pledges and the 1.5°C pathway

UNEP examined what it calls the “lowest possible” overshoot pathway. In that scenario, warming peaks at roughly 1.7°C to 1.8°C around mid-century before falling to 1.5°C or lower by 2100, with about a 50 per cent chance of success.

Reaching that pathway would require global greenhouse-gas emissions to fall 18 per cent by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 per cent by 2040, all measured against 2025 levels. UNEP estimates that full implementation of national pledges would instead reduce emissions by only five to eight per cent by 2030 and 11 to 15 per cent by 2035.

The overshoot pathway would also rely on removing and permanently storing about 320 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide during the century—roughly eight years of global carbon-dioxide emissions at 2024 levels. UNEP warns that the social and technological challenges make that outcome uncertain.

Why the projections worsened

UNEP says this year’s projections are worse than last year’s because of the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions. New national pledges submitted since the previous report made little difference to the global outlook, the agency said.

Even an optimistic scenario in which countries meet all national pledges plus additional net-zero targets would limit warming to about 2.1°C this century, according to the report. UNEP also estimates that every five years of carbon-dioxide emissions at current levels would add roughly 0.1°C to peak warming.

Evidence that policy can cut emissions

The report does not describe higher warming as unavoidable at every level. UNEP reviewed more than 220 climate-policy evaluations and found that electricity-sector measures reduced emissions by an average of nine per cent during the periods studied, while economic instruments such as carbon taxes and cap-and-trade programs produced reductions of five to 13 per cent across sectors.

It also found that renewable-electricity capacity has grown three times faster than anticipated since the Paris Agreement, while solar power expanded seven times faster. UNEP’s conclusion is that proven measures need to be replicated and sustained at a much larger scale.

The projections are global assessments, not forecasts of conditions in any single country. Their significance for Canada lies in the benchmark they provide for comparing policies already in force with the deeper reductions governments have promised internationally.

Sources: UN Environment Programme’s October 21 release and report links; Reuters’ October 21 report; The Associated Press report published October 21.

Editorial illustration of global warming and the widening emissions gap; not a documentary photograph.