The Toronto Raptors have gone 3–4 in seven games without Kawhi Leonard, exposing weaknesses in their half-court offence and defensive rebounding after opening the season with two wins, according to an analysis by Sportsnet’s Ian Finlayson.

The stretch includes decisive losses to the Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets, raising questions about Toronto’s ability to compete with stronger opponents while Leonard is unavailable.

Toronto ranks 24th in half-court offence, scoring 90.7 points per 100 plays against set defences, Sportsnet reported, citing Cleaning the Glass data that excludes garbage time. The Raptors have kept their overall offence productive by playing in transition on a league-leading 20.1 per cent of possessions. In their four losses, however, that share fell to 15.5 per cent.

Outside shooting is another limitation. Toronto ranks 27th in three-point percentage at 31.5 per cent and last in pull-up three-pointers made, averaging 1.3 per game. Leonard’s career three-point percentage of 39 per cent offers a potential lift when he returns.

His absence has also put more offensive responsibility on RJ Barrett and Scottie Barnes. Barrett’s possessions as a pick-and-roll ball handler have risen from 3.0 to 5.3 per game compared with last season, while his true shooting percentage has fallen from 58.5 to 54.7 per cent.

Barnes is averaging 5.9 mid-range attempts, up from 2.4 last season. His true shooting percentage has dropped from 57.7 to 52.2 per cent. Finlayson’s analysis argues that Leonard’s return should allow both players to work in more favourable roles rather than carry as much of the shot-creation burden.

The problems extend to finishing defensive possessions. Toronto is collecting 66.3 per cent of opponents’ missed shots, ranking 24th in defensive rebounding percentage.

Leonard could help there, too, given his rebounding record. For now, the early results show how much Toronto is asking of the rest of its roster when he is out.

Sources