TORONTO — The Maple Leafs’ recent slide has left them with 18 points through 20 games, but improving five-on-five play offers some reason to expect better results, according to an analysis by Sportsnet’s Justin Bourne.

Toronto has lost six of its past seven games and faces two of the league’s top three teams next. Bourne’s assessment points to a combination of weak starting goaltending, injuries and narrow defeats rather than a team consistently being overwhelmed.

The underlying numbers have improved from the opening weeks. Toronto held more than half the expected goals in only two of its first seven games and four of its first 11. In a subsequent nine-game stretch, however, the Leafs held the expected-goals advantage seven times while winning just three games.

Bourne cautioned that score effects — the influence of the score on how teams play — matter when interpreting those results. Nevertheless, he argued that the figures indicate improved control of play.

Eight of Toronto’s 12 losses, including overtime defeats, were decided by one goal before empty-netters, according to the analysis.

Goaltending has been a significant concern. Citing Clear Sight Analytics’ Steven Valiquette, Bourne reported that Sergei Bobrovsky ranked 38th among 39 goalies who had faced more than 200 scoring chances. The company’s assessment put him 7.42 goals below expectation, with an .876 save percentage against an expected .896.

Anthony Stolarz, playing behind the same team, had a .908 save percentage. Bourne advocated giving Stolarz more starts while managing his workload and injury risk; that was a recommendation, not an announced coaching decision.

Injuries have also reduced Toronto’s margin for error. The Leafs were 7-4-2 heading into the Calgary game in which Kirill Marchenko was injured and have gone 1-6-0 since. John Tavares and Chris Tanev have each missed 10 games.

Bourne’s outlook remains conditional: better goaltending, returning players and a possible defensive addition could help Toronto turn close losses into wins. But improved underlying play does not erase the standings deficit, and he warned that the difficult stretch of opponents could deepen it before results improve.

Sources