Republicans’ heavy U.S. midterm losses have weakened President Donald Trump’s political standing, but former American and Canadian officials say it is too soon to declare an end to his influence or the MAGA movement, CBC reports.

Their assessments also point to an uncertain opening for Canada: a diminished president could face more pressure to reach a trade agreement, while remaining unpredictable during his final two years in office.

According to CBC, Democrats flipped at least 40 House seats and seven Senate seats, including one in Texas. Two additional Senate seats, in Mississippi and Alaska, remained dependent on final results.

Former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson, a Republican who challenged Trump in the 2024 presidential primary, told CBC’s Rosemary Barton Live that the defeat could give his party room to return to priorities such as free trade, smaller government and support for allies.

But he cautioned against assuming Trump would fade quietly.

“It all remains to be seen as to how the next two years go,” Hutchinson said. “I would expect the chaos to continue, and so that’s not good for the Trump legacy.”

Bruce Heyman, a former U.S. ambassador to Canada, told CBC’s The House that Trumpism and MAGA were “much diminished,” though loyalty among parts of the president’s base would keep the movement alive. He said Democrats now face the challenge of retaining independents and Republicans who crossed over to support them.

Former Canadian ambassador to the U.S. Frank McKenna also anticipated an erosion of Trump’s support. However, he pointed to Stephen Miller’s recent promotion to chief of staff as a sign that Trump was not retreating from policies such as mass deportations.

For Canada, Heyman recommended pursuing several tracks at once: continuing White House negotiations, diversifying the economy and developing relationships with the incoming Congress.

CBC reported that Prime Minister Mark Carney had described a pre-election conversation with Trump as positive, with teams expected to work on the outlines of a possible trade deal in the coming weeks.

McKenna warned that Trump’s threat to raise tariffs on Canadian autos, auto parts and steel to 50 per cent on Jan. 1, 2027, remained a major risk. Still, he said political pressure to lift tariffs could help move the two countries toward an agreement.

Sources