ANALYSIS — Canada’s immigration debate often focuses on housing, health care and infrastructure. But underneath that debate is a demographic reality that is much harder to ignore: Canada is not producing enough children to sustain its population on its own.

A country with ultra-low fertility

Statistics Canada reports that the national total fertility rate reached 1.25 children per woman in 2024, a record low. The agency describes rates below 1.30 as ultra-low fertility. This is a national measure covering women born both inside and outside Canada; it is not a separate fertility rate for Canadian-born women.

The agency links declining fertility to fewer births, delayed motherhood, barriers to having children and a growing share of women choosing to remain childless. Those choices deserve respect. They also have consequences for a country planning its future workforce and services.

Immigration already supports population renewal

In the fourth quarter of 2025, deaths outnumbered births in Canada. Statistics Canada’s March 2026 release reported that permanent immigration was the only positive component of population growth that quarter. It helped offset negative natural increase and a decline in non-permanent residents, although the total population still fell.

One quarter does not establish that deaths will exceed births every year. It does show why the country cannot assume births alone will deliver continued population growth.

Immigration contributes through newcomers themselves and the families they build. In 2024, 42.3 per cent of newborns had a mother born outside Canada, compared with 22.5 per cent in 1997. Statistics Canada’s study found that, without foreign-born people’s contribution to births and deaths, natural increase would have been negative since 2022.

“Foreign-born” describes birthplace, not citizenship or belonging. Many of these mothers are Canadian citizens, and their children are part of Canada’s future.

Growth needs a plan

The demographic case for immigration does not settle the right annual intake. Nor does a larger population automatically produce higher living standards. The case for growth must include a practical plan for where people will live, work, study and receive care.

Governments should connect immigration planning with housing construction, transit, health care and schools. Employers and regulators should help newcomers use their skills. Productivity and investment matter alongside the number of workers.

Make raising a family more achievable

Canada also needs to take seriously the barriers faced by people who want children. More affordable housing, accessible child care and greater economic security belong in the same conversation. Immigration and support for families can work together.

The better question therefore isn't simply whether Canada needs immigration. It does. The harder question is how much immigration Canada needs — and whether governments are prepared to build the housing, infrastructure and public services necessary to make that immigration successful. That is the conversation Canada should be having.

Sources: Statistics Canada: fertility in 2024; Population estimates, fourth quarter 2025; Contribution of foreign-born mothers to Canadian births.

Supporting image: AI-generated editorial illustration.